No plans for Netherlands tax policy change despite gambling revenue drop
Summary
Dutch State Secretary for Taxation Eugène Heijnen has told parliament there are no plans to introduce compensatory tax policy changes despite an expected fall in online gambling revenue in 2025. The regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) revised its outlook, suggesting the tax increase already enacted will likely lead to a roughly €40m drop in iGaming revenue this year, rather than the previously forecast €100m rise.
The tax hike has been implemented in two steps: the rate rose from 30.5% to 34.2% of gross gaming revenue (GGR) on 1 January 2025 and will increase to 37.8% from 1 January 2026. Trade body VNLOK has warned of a much larger shortfall driven by additional regulatory measures (ad bans, deposit limits and sponsorship restrictions), while the Ministry of Finance had earlier expected an annual increase of about €200m between 2025 and 2028.
Heijnen said the observed revenue dip is consistent with KSA expectations and stressed that, under budgetary rules, shortfalls after policy adoption are not treated as compensatory policy, so existing laws will not be amended in response. Heijnen is newly appointed to the role following a string of resignations at ministerial level earlier in September.
Key Points
- State Secretary Eugène Heijnen confirmed no new tax measures will be introduced to offset the expected 2025 revenue shortfall.
- KSA now expects the gambling tax hike to cause about a €40m reduction in iGaming revenue for 2025, reversing earlier forecasts of higher GGR.
- The Dutch gambling tax rose from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 Jan 2025 and will reach 37.8% on 1 Jan 2026.
- VNLOK warns stricter rules (ad and sponsorship bans, deposit limits) combined with the tax rise could cause a larger revenue gap, citing a possible €200m hole.
- The Ministry of Finance originally projected an additional €200m per year in gambling tax receipts across 2025–28 from the rate increase.
- Heijnen emphasised budgetary rules mean revenue variances after policy adoption are not treated as grounds for compensatory policy changes.
Context and relevance
This update matters for operators, investors and advisers active in the Dutch iGaming market: the government is signalling it will not change course in response to early revenue shortfalls, despite industry warnings. The combination of higher tax rates and new player-protection measures is already reshaping market economics and commercial planning.
For policymakers and analysts, the situation highlights the trade-off between raising tax take and the risk of reducing taxable base through lower activity — a dynamic now visible in the Netherlands as the phased tax rise is implemented.
Why should I read this?
Short and blunt: if you run, invest in or advise on Dutch iGaming, this confirms the squeeze isn’t going away — the state isn’t about to soften the tax blow even if receipts dip. Saves you time: you don’t need to wait for a policy U-turn, start planning for tighter margins and regulatory drag now.
Source
Source: https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/no-new-policies-dutch-gambling-revenue/