Maybank revises down estimates for Bloomberry, as significant drops in VIP affect performance | AGB
Summary
Maybank Securities has sharply revised down its forecasts for Bloomberry Resorts, citing major weakness at Solaire Entertainment City driven by a collapse in VIP activity, higher operating costs tied to an e‑gaming rollout and greater-than-expected depreciation. The bank now models core net losses for FY25 and a weaker FY26, and has cut its price target by 44% while keeping a Hold rating.
Key Points
- Maybank now expects Bloomberry to report core net losses of PHP3.1bn for FY25 and PHP1.0bn for 2026 (previously forecast net incomes of PHP2.9bn and PHP4.8bn respectively).
- VIP gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Solaire Entertainment City fell about 50% in the first nine months of 2025 to PHP5.8bn, blamed on fewer fly‑in VIP punters.
- Despite a small rise in group GGR (+0.4% to PHP45.68bn for 9M25), net income plunged to PHP164m (down 95.3% year‑on‑year), reflecting higher costs and depreciation.
- Solaire Resort North added PHP13.8bn to 9M25 revenue, helping offset declines at Solaire EC where GGR fell 22% year‑on‑year.
- Maybank cut its share target to PHP2.80 (a 44% reduction) but maintained a Hold rating; alternate scenarios show a base case target of PHP2.60 and a bull case of PHP3.50 depending on VIP recovery.
- Potential upside includes a new 14‑day visa‑free entry for Chinese visitors from 16 Jan 2026, which Maybank says could boost land‑based gaming but would likely take several quarters to feed through.
- Key upcoming variables: ramp‑up of Bloomberry’s e‑gaming platform, Solaire Resort North ramp, Jeju property sale, and competition from Westside City (expected 3Q26).
Content summary
Maybank’s analyst Raffy Mendoza highlighted the dramatic deterioration at Bloomberry’s flagship Solaire in Entertainment City, driven primarily by a steep drop in VIP revenue. The broker now models core net losses for FY25 and a much smaller profit for the following year versus earlier forecasts of meaningful profits.
The group’s modest GGR increase in 9M25 owed largely to the contribution from Solaire Resort North (PHP13.8bn), while Solaire Entertainment City saw GGR and several revenue streams contract. As a result, Maybank slashed its target price by 44% to PHP2.80 but retained a Hold view.
Maybank lays out base and bull scenarios for VIP recovery — the base case assumes modest VIP improvement with share downside limited, while a quicker rebound (helped by visa changes for Chinese travellers) could push the bull case to materially higher VIP GGR and a stronger share price.
Context and relevance
This matters for investors and operators in the Philippines and regional gaming markets because Bloomberry is a market leader in Entertainment City; its performance signals demand trends for high‑value fly‑in VIP customers and indicates how new supply (Westside City) and digital initiatives (e‑gaming) are reshaping revenue mixes. The visa waiver for Chinese nationals is a policy lever that could help revive VIP flows, but Maybank cautions recovery will likely take quarters.
Why should I read this?
Because if you follow casino stocks, investor calls or travel‑driven recovery plays in Asia, this sums up why Bloomberry’s numbers tanked and what might fix them — visa changes, Solaire North ramp and e‑gaming. Short, sharp and useful — we read the detail so you don’t have to.
Author note
Punchy take: big VIP swings = big share swings. Maybank’s cut is significant — keep an eye on VIP volumes, the e‑gaming rollout and Chinese visitor flows before betting on a rebound.