Macquarie: FanDuel, DraftKings ‘Positioned’ To Beat Q4 Expectations

Summary

Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon says stronger-than-expected hold in Q4 should push FanDuel parent Flutter and DraftKings past consensus earnings. Beynon estimates Flutter could see an extra $100–$200m in quarterly EBITDA and DraftKings $50–$100m, driven largely by high hold in November and December (notably New York results). He recommends owning online casino and sports-betting stocks into earnings season, and notes that data/sports-tech firms like Genius Sports and Sportradar were oversold despite being somewhat insulated from hold volatility. Macquarie also flags December handle softness due to calendar effects and weaker NFL matchups, while projecting robust year-on-year growth for Q4 betting and casino revenues.

Key Points

Macquarie projects Flutter (FanDuel) could record +$100m–$200m incremental Q4 EBITDA from better hold.
DraftKings may see +$50m–$100m in incremental Q4 EBITDA; Beynon raises his Q4 EBITDA estimate to $273m (consensus $237m).
FanDuel’s implied hold was 10.9% vs an actual 12.1%; Beynon expects Flutter Q4 EBITDA of ~$450m (consensus $343m).
Genius Sports and Sportradar have been unfairly penalised by the market despite benefiting from growth in live betting as a share of handle.
Penn Entertainment saw a slight hold improvement (to 7.1%), trimming adjusted EBITDA losses modestly; Penn also ended the ESPN Bet partnership and reverted to theScore Bet brand.
December handle fell ~2% due to losing an NFL Sunday year-on-year and weaker marquee matchups; Macquarie forecasts Q4 online sports-betting revenue +51% YoY and online casino revenue +24% YoY.

Why should I read this?

Quick and useful: if you care about sportsbook stocks or earnings season, this tells you why FanDuel and DraftKings might out-perform expectations — and why the street may be underestimating Q4 hold. Saves you the hassle of sifting through state reports and company notes.

Context and Relevance

This note matters for investors, analysts and industry watchers. Hold volatility can swing quarterly results substantially in the sportsbook business, and Macquarie’s view suggests the market consensus hasn’t fully priced in stronger hold from late 2025. The call also highlights broader trends: rising live-betting mix (positive for data partners), decelerating yet still-healthy casino growth, and the sensitivity of handle to calendar/NFL scheduling. For anyone tracking sector multiples, guidance or near-term M&A sentiment, the implications are immediate.