Prediction markets could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by decade’s end, new report says
Summary
A new report from research firm Eilers & Krejcik projects prediction markets could trade as much as $1 trillion in annual volume by the end of this decade, driven largely by sports-related contracts and growing involvement from fintech platforms and traditional bookmakers.
Current platforms generate about $10 billion in trading volume, indicating the sector is still in early-stage growth. Sports contracts are expected to make up roughly 44% of long-run volume as offerings expand around leagues, matches and player performance. The report warns that legal and regulatory uncertainty is the main downside risk to this expansion.
Eilers & Krejcik note measurement differences between prediction markets and sportsbooks — prediction markets count both sides of a trade as volume — and estimate that mature sports prediction markets could support sportsbook-style handle equivalent to 60–80% of today’s regulated online sports betting market. Major incumbents and fintech firms such as Robinhood, Fanatics (with Crypto.com), DraftKings and FanDuel are entering the space, while Coinbase has also moved in, signalling strong commercial interest.
Key Points
- Eilers & Krejcik forecast prediction-market volume could reach $1 trillion annually by the decade’s end.
- Current industry volume is around $10 billion, showing the market is nascent but scaling rapidly.
- Sports-related contracts are expected to account for about 44% of long-run prediction-market volume.
- Legal and regulatory uncertainty is the primary risk that could slow or derail growth.
- Conversion modelling suggests mature sports prediction markets could reach 60–80% of sportsbook-style handle.
- Major entrants (Robinhood, Fanatics, DraftKings, FanDuel, Coinbase) indicate traditional betting and fintech sectors are converging on prediction markets.
- Analysts describe the sector as in the “early innings of exponential scaling” with institutional participation likely to follow.
Why should I read this?
Quick and blunt: if you care about sports betting, fintech or gambling regulation, this is a big deal. Prediction markets are moving from niche experimentation to something that could rival large parts of the betting market — and fast. The report explains where the growth will come from, who’s entering the race and what could trip things up (mainly laws and regulators). Saved you the scrolling — worth a skim if you work in the sector.