Diesel prices see declines with forecasts of more ahead as OPEC continues to boost supply
Summary
Diesel prices in the US have softened since their 2025 peak, offering temporary relief for shippers and carriers. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports the national average has eased from mid-summer highs and stood around the mid-$3.70s per gallon in late August.
The drop is partly seasonal as summer driving wanes, but global factors are also at play: OPEC has nudged up its oil-demand forecast for 2026, while analysts fret about a potential supply glut. Distillate inventories remain below the five-year average, yet supplied volumes are up year-on-year. Geopolitical events in and around Russia and moves by major refiners — including ExxonMobil shifting capacity toward diesel — add to the market’s push-and-pull.
Crude forecasts keep Brent in a roughly mid-$60s per barrel range for Q4, and industry commentators say traders are stuck in a narrow band, waiting for a catalyst to move prices decisively.
Key Points
- National on-highway diesel averages have declined from July highs, sitting in the mid-$3.70s per gallon in late August according to the EIA.
- Seasonal cooling in demand after summer partly explains the fall, but global supply signals are significant — OPEC raised its 2026 demand-growth forecast.
- Distillate inventories are about 15% below the five-year average, even as supplied volumes rose ~7.7% year-on-year.
- Fuel surcharges for trucking have eased (example: LTL and TL surcharge declines reported), offering marginal operational relief.
- Geopolitical incidents — pipeline explosions and strikes on refineries in Russia — and pipeline re-openings to Europe are keeping markets attentive to risk.
- ExxonMobil plans to increase diesel production at its Baytown, Texas, facility by 2028, signalling refinery-side adjustments to the market.
- Brent crude is forecast to hover around $63.50/bbl in Q4, with analysts describing the market as range-bound pending a major catalyst.
Why should I read this?
Quick and useful if you manage fleets, set freight rates or watch fuel budgets. Short version: diesel costs have eased a bit, surcharges are down, but don’t pop the champagne — structural rate pressure and geopolitics still matter. If you want the headlines without sifting through market reports, this saves you time.
Author style
Punchy: this piece is a straight-up market pulse. It flags where costs are easing, what’s behind the moves (seasonality, OPEC, inventories, geopolitics), and what to watch next — a must-see briefing for ops teams and procurement, not a deep-dive analysis.