Prediction market roundup: Stocks slump amid proposed federal bills; Trump breaks silence on election betting
Summary
Two new federal bills introduced this week could sharply change the landscape for prediction markets in the US. Senator Adam Schiff and Senator John Curtis proposed the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which would bar CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games and would prevent such contracts from pre-empting state law. Shortly after, a bipartisan bill — the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 — was introduced by Senators Todd Young and Elissa Slotkin to ban federally elected officials and government employees from trading on prediction markets using non-public information.
The proposals rattled markets and industry participants. Public reaction included criticism from Kalshi’s CEO and a slide in shares for companies with overlapping sports-betting and prediction-market offerings, such as DraftKings and Flutter. Former president Donald Trump publicly said prediction markets were more accurate than polls for the 2024 election, while Kalshi and Polymarket implemented new integrity guardrails to restrict certain politically exposed persons from trading on sensitive markets.
Author note
Author style: Punchy. This piece flags fast-moving regulatory risk and industry pushback — worth reading if you track prediction markets, betting firms or market integrity issues.
Key Points
- Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act to block CFTC-registered platforms from listing sports-style and casino-style event contracts.
- The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 (bipartisan) would prohibit federally elected officials and government employees from trading on prediction markets using insider information, with fines for violations.
- Market reaction: DraftKings shares fell to a 12-month low during the week, contributing to a wider pullback for firms with prediction and sports-betting exposure; Flutter also declined.
- Donald Trump publicly said 2024 election prediction markets were more accurate than polls; his family and platforms have commercial ties to prediction-market operators.
- Kalshi and Polymarket rolled out stricter integrity rules to preempt insider trading and limit participation by politically exposed persons and other vulnerable groups.
- Industry warns that outright bans could push activity offshore, reducing regulatory oversight and consumer protections.
Why should I read this?
Quick and dirty: Congress might try to clip prediction markets’ wings and also wants tighter insider-trading rules. If you follow betting firms, market integrity or regulatory risk, this could change business models, stock valuations and where people place political bets. We read the detail so you don’t have to — short, sharp and important if prediction markets touch your work or investments.
Source
Source: https://igamingbusiness.com/prediction-markets/prediction-market-roundup-32726/