Downstate New York market could generate $4.7B-$5.6 in annual GGR: CBRE

Article date: 2026-03-25T23:55:15+00:00 | Author: Kelsey Wilhelm

Summary

CBRE Institutional Research projects that the downstate New York market could produce between $4.7 billion and $5.6 billion in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) once table supply is introduced and the new or expanded integrated resorts mature by 2031.

The three licence winners — Bally’s Corp, Queen’s Future (Seminole Hard Rock with Steven Cohen) and Genting New York — are expected to commit nearly $20 billion in building or revamping properties, funded largely by project-level lending. Each operator must pay a $500 million licence fee and pledge at least $500 million in capital investment.

Key Points

CBRE expects downstate New York to become the largest US regional gaming market at maturation, with estimated annual GGR of $4.7bn–$5.6bn.
Three licence winners (Bally’s, Queen’s Future, Genting) to commit almost $20bn in capex for new or upgraded integrated resorts.
Licence conditions include a $500m fee per winner and a minimum $500m capital pledge; nearly 1,200 tables will be introduced alongside increased slot supply.
CBRE notes non-income costs (licence fees, community investments) could temper headline returns, but still expects projects to deliver returns above operators’ cost of capital.
Genting’s Resorts World New York City is positioned to open a permanent facility faster than rivals, initially with 4,000 machines and 250 tables, expanding to about 6,000 slots and 800 tables by 2029 — an estimated $5.5bn expansion.
Genting is likely to reach return on investment ahead of competitors because it is not building from scratch and plans the largest gaming floor, ~2,000 hotel rooms and a 7,000-seat arena.

Context and relevance

This analysis matters to investors, operators and regional planners. A potential $4.7bn–$5.6bn annual GGR market shifts the national gaming landscape, drawing capital, jobs and tourism to downstate New York. The nearly $20bn of committed capex signals major construction and operating activity that will affect local real estate, hospitality and entertainment sectors.

For operators and financiers, the combination of high upfront licence and community costs plus projected returns above cost of capital frames the deals as viable but capital-intensive. Regulators and community stakeholders will be watching impacts on local infrastructure, employment and tax receipts as projects proceed toward 2031 maturation.

Why should I read this?

Short version: this is big money and it reshapes a major US gaming market. If you care about gaming rivals, investment flows, or regional economic impact — skim this now. We’ve done the heavy lifting: headline GGR estimates, who’s spending what, and which operator will likely sprint out of the blocks.