High expectations for 2026 by Jefferies analysts, with Sands, Galaxy and MGM set to shine in Macau

Summary

Jefferies forecasts a respectable recovery for Macau in 2026, projecting gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP260.6 billion (a 5.3% rise) after 2025 closed at MOP247.4 billion (+9.1% y/y). The firm expects both VIP and mass segments to grow modestly, visitation to set a new record at around 41.98 million visitors (mainland China to exceed 30 million for the first time), but little change in average spend per visitor (c. MOP6,207).

The brokerage highlights Sands, Galaxy and MGM as the likely outperformers next year: Sands for its focus on delivering absolute EBITDA dollars and benefits from Londoner capacity; Galaxy for strong Cotai performance and Phase 4 upside; and MGM for premium-mass product upgrades and new ultra-high-end offerings. Jefferies holds Buy ratings on Galaxy, Sands, MGM and Wynn, and a Hold on SJM.

Key Points

Jefferies projects 2026 GGR at MOP260.6 billion, up c.5.3% on 2025.
Macau visitation is forecast to hit ~41.98 million, with mainland arrivals topping ~30.43 million.
Average spend per visitor is expected to remain largely unchanged at about MOP6,207.
Sands China is set to lead revenue and is prioritising absolute EBITDA (target adjusted EBITDA run rate c. $2.7bn).
Galaxy expects robust gains ahead of its Phase 4 opening (2027) with new premium capacity driving both mass and VIP growth.
MGM is expanding premium-mass offerings (Alpha Club, suite conversions, premium mass area) to sustain mid-teen market share.
Jefferies upgraded market-share assumptions for Sands, Galaxy and MGM in Q4 2025; Wynn and SJM lost share in that quarter.
Wynn and SJM still have near-term catalysts: Wynn’s Chairman’s Club expansion and possible event & entertainment build; SJM’s peninsula consolidation (Hotel Lisboa acquisition and Casino Lisboa extension).

Why should I read this?

Quick and dirty: if you follow Macau gaming — whether you’re an investor, operator or supplier — this note lays out who’s likely to win next year. Jefferies gives clear numeric expectations, buy/hold calls and the reasons why Sands, Galaxy and MGM should outpace peers. Saves you reading the full earnings grind and flags the operational catalysts to watch (Phase 4, Londoner capacity, premium-mass rollouts).