Elvis Lourenço hits out at ‘insane’ plans to double Brazil gambling tax rate

Summary

Brazilian iGaming expert Elvis Lourenço has criticised a newly proposed bill (PL 5,076/2025) that would raise the gambling tax on operators from 12% of gross gaming revenue (GGR) to 24%. Lourenço calls the idea “insane” and warns it could collapse the nascent regulated market. He argues the sector may be able to negotiate the rate down towards the previously discussed 15–18% range, rather than the proposed doubling.

The article explains recent political manoeuvring: an earlier provisional measure to raise the rate to 18% failed in Parliament, and the new bill received urgent status. Lourenço says the government is using gambling taxation as a political tool ahead of elections and is unfairly targeting legal operators while the black market still accounts for a large share of betting revenue.

Key Points

PL 5,076/2025 proposes increasing Brazil’s gambling tax on operators from 12% to 24% of GGR.
Elvis Lourenço describes the 24% proposal as “insane” and predicts it could collapse the regulated market.
Earlier legislation originally proposed 18%; Lourenço believes a realistic negotiation target is 15–18%.
Operators already face additional levies: 9.25% PIS/Cofins, municipal taxes up to 5%, and corporate/social taxes (~34% combined on profits).
A transition in Brazil’s tax system (replacement of PIS/Cofins) could further raise the overall tax burden on operators, potentially beyond 50% if GGR taxes increase.
Industry argues the government is targeting legal operators while the black market still generates a significant portion of betting revenue (estimates of >50%).
Lourenço urges the government to prioritise bringing offshore/illegal activity onshore rather than further penalising licensed operators.
The move is seen as politically motivated ahead of elections, playing to conservative voters by taxing the “three Bs” (billionaires, banks and betting).

Context and relevance

This matters for operators, investors, affiliates and regulators with exposure to Brazil. The regulated market only launched in January and is still fragile; big tax increases this early risk undermining operator economics, investment appetite and consumer migration to licensed platforms. The debate also ties into wider trends: tightening ad rules, shifting tax regimes (PIS/Cofins reform) and the global challenge of converting informal/black-market activity into taxed, regulated revenue.

Author style

Punchy: If you follow Latin American iGaming or have business in Brazil, this is urgent — policy moves here will reshape margins and market structure. Read the detail if you need to act.

Why should I read this?

Want to know if Brazil’s betting market could implode or simply become far more expensive to operate? This piece cuts to the chase: it explains the government’s proposals, the political drivers, the true tax burden operators already face and why cracking down on illegal betting would be a smarter move. Short and to the point — we saved you the heavy lifting.