Most Americans see sports event contracts as gambling, AGA survey shows
Summary
A new YouGov poll commissioned by the American Gaming Association (AGA) finds a decisive majority of US registered voters view sports event contracts offered by prediction markets as a form of gambling. The survey of 2,025 registered voters (1–8 August) reports that 85% see such contracts as more like wagers than financial instruments; only 6% likened them to commodities or securities.
Support for regulation is strong: 80% said sports event contracts should be treated the same as other online sports betting, and roughly two-thirds want state and tribal gaming regulators — not the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — to oversee them. The poll also shows scepticism towards operators such as Kalshi, with 70% saying these companies are “exploiting a loophole” to act as unlicensed sportsbooks.
Source
Key Points
- Survey by YouGov (1–8 Aug) of 2,025 registered voters commissioned by the AGA.
- 85% of respondents said sports event contracts from prediction markets resemble gambling rather than financial instruments.
- 80% believe these contracts should be regulated like other online sports betting.
- About two-thirds favour oversight by state and tribal gaming regulators rather than the CFTC.
- 70% view prediction-market operators (eg Kalshi) as exploiting a regulatory loophole; only 16% support them operating without sportsbook licencing.
- Legal and regulatory friction is growing: tribal lawsuits and calls for CFTC enforcement and congressional oversight are already underway.
Context and relevance
The findings come amid rising activity from prediction-market platforms that offer contracts tied to sports outcomes. The strong public view that these are gambling products raises pressure on regulators, legislators and operators. For regulators and operators, this poll signals likely political and legal momentum towards treating prediction-market sports contracts as traditional betting products — with attendant consumer protections and oversight.
Why should I read this?
Because if you follow betting markets, regulation or the business of prediction platforms, this survey is a quick reality check: the public largely thinks these offerings are gambling and wants them regulated like sportsbooks. We’ve read the poll so you don’t have to — and if you’re tracking legal risk or market access for operators, it matters.
Additional notes
AGA president Bill Miller urged enforcement of rules that bar gaming contracts from being treated as commodities, while industry defenders argue adults can choose how to spend their money. The debate is now playing out in courtrooms and statehouses as well as regulator briefings.