Will prediction markets ease Gibraltar’s UK tax concerns?
Summary
Gibraltar has licensed a company in the prediction markets sector as it seeks new growth avenues after the UK sharply raised online gambling taxes. Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar’s Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said prediction markets are a “substantial area of potential growth” and that the government is actively promoting Gibraltar’s regulatory offering to diversify the economy. Predict Street Ltd appears on Gibraltar’s approved operators list and claims a tie-up with the 2026 FIFA World Cup, though that claim is unconfirmed by FIFA. The move comes as the UK increases remote gaming duty to 40% (effective 1 April 2026) and plans a 25% general betting duty for remote betting from April 2027. Prediction markets have grown in the US but face bans or legal challenges in several countries, making Gibraltar one of the few receptive jurisdictions. Analysts such as Eilers & Krejcik project major volume potential for prediction markets by 2030.
Key Points
- Gibraltar has added a prediction markets firm to its approved operator list as it seeks economic diversification following UK tax hikes.
- The UK raised remote gaming duty to 40% from 1 April 2026 and will introduce a 25% remote betting duty from April 2027, pressuring offshore hubs.
- Predict Street Ltd is listed by Gibraltar and plans a 9 April launch with a claimed FIFA World Cup partnership that is not corroborated by FIFA.
- Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded in the US but faced legal scrutiny; some countries (New Zealand, Australia, the Netherlands) have banned such operators.
- Industry analysis (Eilers & Krejcik) suggests prediction markets could reach very large volumes by 2030, explaining Gibraltar’s interest.
Context and relevance
The UK tax changes are a major catalyst: higher remote gaming duty makes traditional online gambling less attractive for operators and for low-tax jurisdictions that rely on licence fees and business activity. Gibraltar’s proactive licensing indicates it is trying to capture a new vertical that could replace lost revenue streams. For operators, regulators and investors in iGaming, this signals where product development, licensing strategies and market-entry decisions might shift in the short to medium term.
Why should I read this?
Quick and blunt — if you care about where operators will go when the UK makes running your business more expensive, this matters. Gibraltar is testing a niche (prediction markets) that could become a refuge — or a legal headache. Read this if you work in iGaming, run compliance or are tracking where liquidity and licences are likely to head next.
Author note (style)
Punchy: A tax shock from London has forced Gibraltar to look sideways. The detail is worth a close read if you’re plotting strategy, licences or investment in the sector — it could change where operators base key parts of their business.
Source
Source: https://igamingexpert.com/regions/europe/prediction-markets-gibraltar/