Hawaii House Committee advances bill to ban prediction markets

Summary

Hawaii’s House Commerce-Consumer Protection Committee has voted unanimously by voice to advance an amended House Bill 2198 that would classify prediction markets as illegal gambling under state law. The hearing featured testimony from four opponents of prediction markets; no representatives from any platform spoke for them. If passed, HB 2198 would make Hawaii the first US state to push through a ban on prediction markets via the legislature.

The move comes amid growing national scrutiny: prominent operator Kalshi is embroiled in legal challenges and several federal judges have limited prediction‑market activity pending court rulings. Regulators in other states have warned licensed sports‑betting operators to steer clear of prediction markets, and a draft federal bill is aiming to curb insider trading by government employees on such platforms. Connecticut’s governor has also floated raising the minimum participation age to 21.

Witnesses at the hearing likened prediction markets to gambling and warned of major financial harm, with opponents citing large losses and claims that these platforms attempt to circumvent local gambling laws. The committee accepted three amendments (two from former Rep. Marcus Oshiro and one from the chair preventing repeal in 2029) that the committee says do not change the bill’s overall intent. HB 2198 currently has no Senate companion and faces Hawaii’s crossover deadline on 12 March.

Key Points

HB 2198 was advanced unanimously by the House Commerce‑Consumer Protection Committee to classify prediction markets as illegal gambling in Hawaii.
No platform representatives testified; all public testimony recorded during the hearing opposed prediction markets.
If enacted, Hawaii would be the first US state to advance legislation specifically banning prediction markets.
Kalshi and other operators are facing legal challenges nationally; several federal judges have restricted prediction‑market operations pending case outcomes.
State regulators have warned licensed sports‑betting operators against involvement with prediction markets; federal proposals target insider trading by public employees.
Opponents warn of significant financial losses and argue prediction markets try to circumvent existing Hawaiian gambling laws.
The committee accepted three amendments (including one to prevent repeal in 2029); HB 2198 has no Senate companion and faces the 12 March crossover deadline.

Why should I read this?

Because this isn’t just another bill — it could set a US first. If you work in gaming, betting, regulation or policy, HB 2198 signals where lawmakers are leaning on prediction markets. We’ve done the skimming for you: key legal fights, industry warnings, and the legislative timeline are all here so you can decide fast if this affects your business or brief.