Manufacturing declines for the ninth consecutive month, reports ISM

Summary

Manufacturing in the US contracted again in November, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports. The headline PMI registered 48.2 (below the 50 growth threshold), down 0.5 points from October. ISM highlighted tariffs and economic uncertainty as recurring themes among panelist comments.

The report shows a mixed picture among subindices: production rebounded while new orders and employment weakened. Several sectors — notably Computer & Electronic Products, Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Machinery — saw growth, but many others continued to contract.

Key Points

ISM PMI: 48.2 in November, down 0.5 points — ninth straight month of contraction.
New Orders: 47.4, down 2.0 points and contracting for the third consecutive month.
Production: 51.4, rose 3.2 points after contracting in October.
Employment: 44.0, down 2.0 points and contracting for the 10th consecutive month.
Supplier Deliveries: 49.3, moved faster after prior slowing trends.
Inventories: 48.9, up 3.1 points but still contracting at a slower rate.
Customers’ Inventories: 44.7, still considered too low for the 14th consecutive month.
Prices: 58.5, up 0.5 points — 14th consecutive month of increases with broad sector pricing gains.
Primary headwinds cited by panelists: tariff confusion, trade uncertainty and volatile sourcing decisions driving some buyers away from US suppliers.

Why should I read this?

Short version: if you move, buy or make stuff, this matters. The ISM PMI is a quick snapshot of manufacturing health — and nine months down says demand is shaky. It flags employment weakness, sticky prices and trade/tariff headaches that could shape sourcing and inventory moves into 2026. We read the full report so you don’t have to — but don’t ignore the takeaways.

Context and relevance

The continued contraction is significant for logistics, supply chain and manufacturing decision-makers. Lower new orders and faster supplier deliveries suggest pipelines are thinning, which may reduce freight demand and warehouse throughput. Persistent price increases alongside falling employment point to margin pressure and cost-management challenges.

ISM panelists repeatedly mention tariffs and trade confusion as drivers of volatility — firms are delaying or rethinking orders and some are exploring alternative suppliers abroad. That behaviour risks permanently shifting supply relationships away from US manufacturers if uncertainty persists. ISM chair Susan Spence characterises recent index moves as waves and one-time pops rather than a sustained recovery, and she expects conditions to likely remain similar into 2026 absent a clear catalyst to restore buyer confidence.