AGA survey suggests US population views prediction markets as betting
Summary
A YouGov survey commissioned by the American Gaming Association (AGA) of 2,025 registered US voters finds strong public sentiment that sports event contracts offered by prediction markets resemble traditional gambling rather than financial instruments. The report highlights that 85% of respondents view such contracts as more like betting, and roughly four in five want them regulated the same way as online sportsbooks.
The survey asked voters about a simple contract example (staking $0.50 on a Yankees win) and found the majority treated it as sportsbook activity. Respondents expressed concern that platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket may be exploiting regulatory gaps, with about 70% saying these platforms are operating like unlicensed sportsbooks. The poll also showed wide support for state-level oversight, licence requirements and consumer safeguards.
Key Points
- 85% of respondents view sports event contracts as more like gambling than a financial product.
- About 80% want prediction markets regulated like online sportsbooks.
- 84% say companies offering sports event contracts should obtain sportsbook licences in states where they operate.
- ~70% believe platforms are exploiting regulatory loopholes to operate as unlicensed sportsbooks.
- 65% favour state and tribal regulators overseeing these markets rather than the federal CFTC.
- 64% think regulators and operators should provide consumer protections and responsible-gambling tools.
Context and relevance
The findings come amid growing debate over whether prediction markets count as financial derivatives or betting products. The AGA frames the results as a mandate for clearer enforcement by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and increased Congressional oversight to prevent prediction markets from acting as a backdoor for unregulated sports betting. For regulators, operators and investors, the poll signals mounting public and political pressure to tighten rules and clarify which authorities should govern these products.
Why should I read this?
Short and sharp: if you follow iGaming, regulation or prediction-market platforms, this is relevant. The public overwhelmingly treats these contracts as gambling — that translates into likely regulatory headaches, state-level licence demands and calls for consumer safeguards. Read the detail if you care about compliance risk, market access or policy shifts that could change how platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate in the US.
Source
Source: https://next.io/news/betting/aga-survey-prediction-markets-betting/