KSA: Black market overtakes licensed sector for first time

Summary

The Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA) semi-annual monitoring report for H1 2025 shows the illegal online gambling market has, for the first time since legalisation in 2021, outstripped the licensed sector.

Between January and June 2025 licensed operators reported around €600m in GGR (a 14% decline versus the prior six months) while the black market is estimated at €617m. The report links the licensed contraction to stricter responsible gaming measures introduced in late 2024 (Responsible Gaming Policy 2024, play and deposit limits) and reduced advertising opportunities.

Channelisation fell to 49% in early 2025 (from 51% in late 2024). Average monthly player loss dropped from €146 to €119, suggesting safeguards are reducing spend for those remaining in the legal market, but many players appear to have migrated to unlicensed sites. The report also highlights demographic and harm indicators: young adults (18–23) make up 23% of active accounts, Cruks exclusions exceeded 101,000 by August 2025, and treatment for gambling addiction rose in 2024.

Key Points

The black market generated an estimated €617m GGR in H1 2025, slightly above the licensed sector’s €600m.
Licensed GGR fell 14% versus the prior six months after new responsible gaming rules and limits were introduced in Oct 2024.
Channelisation dropped to 49%, signalling a larger share of play moving to unlicensed operators.
Average monthly player loss decreased (from €146 to €119), indicating protective measures lowered spending among regulated players.
Advertising and sponsorship restrictions cut licensed operator visibility (online ads down ~20%), which may have aided black market growth.
Young adults (18–23) are disproportionately active (23% of accounts) and remain a regulatory focus.
Harm indicators rose: Cruks exclusions surpassed 101,000 and treatment for gambling addiction increased in 2024.

Context and Relevance

This is a wake-up call for regulators, operators, affiliates and policy makers across Europe: strict player-protection mechanisms can lower harm for those who stay within the regulated market but may unintentionally drive traffic to riskier, unregulated operators.

For operators, the findings underline the commercial impact of advertising and sponsorship limits and the need to rethink player acquisition and retention strategies within the regulated framework. For regulators, it presents the classic trade-off between robust consumer protection and effective channelisation. The data also ties into wider industry trends showing that tighter restrictions often correlate with growth in illicit markets.

Why should I read this?

Want to know why your player numbers are slipping or why affiliates are complaining? This short report explains the shift: stronger limits helped curb losses but nudged lots of players offshore. If you work in regulation, compliance, operator strategy or affiliate marketing, it’s the most relevant snapshot of how policy choices are reshaping where people gamble.

Author style

Punchy: This report is a clear red flag. It’s essential reading if you need to understand the immediate commercial and regulatory consequences of player-protection measures — and what to do next to stop customers drifting to the black market.