Macau casinos post best Golden Week in over five years despite typhoon disruption: JP Morgan | AGB
Summary
J.P. Morgan reports Macau delivered its strongest Golden Week start in more than five years, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) hitting MOP5.5 billion (approx. $687.5m) over the first five days of October — a daily run rate near MOP1.1 billion. Year‑on‑year growth was modest (around 3%) because of a strong 2024 comparator and a typhoon that temporarily cut visitation (about a 25% drop on 5 October). Despite the weather blip, J.P. Morgan kept its full‑month GGR forecast at MOP23 billion (an 11–13% rise YoY) and expects double‑digit growth through at least Q1 2026. CLSA offered a similarly upbeat view, citing steady mass play, higher visitation versus 2019 and supportive macro indicators such as a stronger renminbi and improving Chinese industrial and property metrics.
Key Points
- Early Golden Week GGR: MOP5.5 billion in the first five days (daily run rate ~MOP1.1 billion).
- Year‑on‑year growth muted (~3%) due to a strong 2024 base and typhoon disruption that reduced visits on 5 October by ~25%.
- J.P. Morgan keeps October GGR estimate at MOP23 billion (11–13% YoY), potentially Macau’s highest monthly total in six years.
- JP Morgan forecasts sustained double‑digit GGR growth into at least Q1 2026 and EBITDA acceleration across coming quarters (approx. +10%, +15%, +20%).
- CLSA also bullish: estimates October GGR around MOP22.6 billion and notes stronger renminbi, improving PPI/Purchasing Price Index spread and recovering property prices as tailwinds.
- Observations from site visits show steady minimum bets and more family travellers, with visitation in early holiday days roughly 3% above 2019 levels.
Context and relevance
This update matters for investors, operators and anyone tracking the regional tourism recovery. Macau’s strong start to Golden Week — despite a weather interruption — signals robust demand resilience in the mass segment and improving operating leverage for casino operators. The macro picture (currency strength, manufacturing/profitability indicators and property recovery) provides a plausible lead indicator for continued GGR expansion over the next several quarters. For funds and analysts, the numbers support the case that the investor base may widen beyond hedge funds as earnings visibility improves.
Why should I read this?
Short version: Macau bounced back hard — best start to Golden Week since before the pandemic, even with a typhoon. If you follow gaming stocks, travel recovery or China‑linked consumer spend, this is worth a quick read — it shows demand is coming back and the sector’s earnings outlook is getting brighter.
Author’s take
Punchy: This is more than a holiday spike — it’s evidence the Macau recovery is sticking. JP Morgan and CLSA both see real upside, so if you care about casino earnings or regional tourism trends, dig into the forecasts and macro drivers they’ve highlighted.