Container Shipping: Demand bolstered by trade lanes not bound for the US
Summary
BIMCO has revised its 2025 ship demand growth higher to 4.5-5.5% while keeping 2026 at 2.5-3.5%. The upgrade is driven by stronger demand on long head-haul trades that do not head to the US — notably Asian exports to Sub-Saharan Africa, South & Central America and Europe & the Mediterranean.
The report flags US tariff increases and weaker US import volumes: North America import volumes are expected to contract ~2% in 2025 and recover in 2026. Global cargo volumes are still expected to grow about 2.5-3.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
Elevated demand in 2025 is also supported by ships rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope while Suez transits remain about 90% below pre-Red Sea attack levels; if normal Suez routings resume, BIMCO says ship demand could end up ~10% lower than current forecasts.
On supply, BIMCO lifted its 2025 fleet growth estimate to 7.3% (then 3.1% for 2026) due to slower recycling and slightly higher sailing speeds. The organisation warns freight rates may weaken further through 2025, with possible pressure on time-charter rates and second-hand prices from Q4 2025, before stabilising in 2026.
Key Points
- BIMCO raises 2025 ship demand growth forecast to 4.5–5.5%; 2026 remains 2.5–3.5%.
- Global cargo volumes projected to grow c.2.5–3.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Stronger demand concentrated on long head-haul trades from Asia to Africa, Latin America and Europe/Mediterranean.
- US tariffs and weaker US imports weigh on North America; expected -2% import volumes in 2025 with recovery in 2026.
- Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope (Suez transits down ~90%) is elevating demand; a return to normal Suez transits could cut demand by ~10% versus current forecast.
- Fleet growth estimate increased to 7.3% for 2025 (3.1% for 2026) due to slow recycling and slightly higher speeds.
- BIMCO expects freight rates may weaken through the rest of 2025, with potential pressure on time-charter and second-hand markets from Q4 2025, and stabilisation in 2026.
Why should I read this?
Quick and useful: if you work in shipping, port ops, freight forwarding or related finance, this explains why 2025 could feel choppier than 2024 — where the demand pockets are, and how rerouting and tariffs are shifting the balance. Saves you reading the whole BIMCO note and gives the bits that affect planning and rates.
Author style
Punchy — highlights a notable upward revision to 2025 demand and flags real tactical risks (Suez rerouting and tariff fallout). Important for anyone tracking freight-rate direction or fleet deployment.