Sea drones present navies with ‘back to the future’ problem: paper

Summary

A new CSIS report says navies face a “back to the future” moment as cheap uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) and uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) revive the old danger of long-range strikes on anchored ships. Mark Cancian, the report’s naval-warfare author, argues that ships are especially vulnerable when stationary in port and that sea drones have already demonstrated that risk in the Ukraine war, where Ukrainian naval drones damaged and drove off elements of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The paper urges navies to harden anchorages and improve port defences — measures not widely needed since the Second World War — while balancing cost and operational impact. It also notes that UUVs and USVs offer offensive and intelligence opportunities for navies, but many Western services currently focus on mine countermeasures, surveillance and reconnaissance rather than one-way attack drones. The report flags capability, budget and procurement gaps: some systems (for example, the US Orca UUV) are technically capable but costly and delayed, and planned numbers of uncrewed vessels are not yet matched by committed funding.

Key Points

CSIS calls the rise of USVs and UUVs a “back to the future” challenge: old vulnerabilities to port attacks are returning in new, cheaper forms.
Sea drones used in the Ukraine war have shown that anchored warships can be attacked from long range, forcing navies (notably Russia) to beef up port defences.
Navies must harden anchorages and adapt defensive measures before a major incident occurs, but solutions must be affordable and minimally intrusive to operations.
UUVs and USVs are dual-use: they present threats but also give opportunities for surveillance, mine countermeasures, reconnaissance and, potentially, offensive operations.
Many Western navies are investing in uncrewed systems, but programmes of record, funding and procurement plans lag behind ambitions and stated plans.
High-end platforms like the Orca UUV can do strike missions but are prohibitively expensive for expendable, one-way attacks; cheaper one-way systems remain the biggest operational risk.
Congressional funding (about $5.3bn in this year’s reconciliation bill) shows interest, but demand signals and clear acquisition pathways are still uncertain.

Context and relevance

The report situates sea drones within broader trends in asymmetric warfare and autonomous systems. For defence planners, ship crews and port authorities, the piece highlights an urgent need to rethink anchorage security, procurement priorities and tactics. For industry, it points to a market for cost-effective countermeasures and uncrewed systems optimised for coastal and port environments. In short, the vulnerability that sank ships in WWII is resurfacing in a modern, cheaper guise.

Why should I read this?

Because if you care about naval strategy, defence procurement or port security, this explains why an old problem has come back — and why it could be cheaper and nastier this time. The report saves you the slog: it lays out the threat, shows real-world proof in Ukraine, and flags where navies and budgets are coming up short. Quick read, big implications.