Analyst points to strong Vegas weekend from boxing match and November improvement for tourism
Summary
Wall Street analyst Barry Jonas of Truist Securities flags a mixed picture for Las Vegas tourism: continued summer softness through October but an early sign that November could show modest improvement. Jonas points to shorter booking windows and a busy events calendar as drivers for a possible late-year inflection.
The Canelo vs Crawford fight at Allegiant Stadium produced a notable weekend spike, lifting Strip room rates about 41% year on year for 12-14 September and likely boosting gaming play. Despite that one-off lift, room-rate trends for major operators remain lower year on year across recent months, though November reads show improvement relative to October.
Key Points
- Truist Securities room-rate survey shows summer softness continued into October but an early November read suggests modest improvement.
- The Canelo vs Crawford weekend (12-14 Sept) pushed the Strip up approximately 41% year on year, helping weekend performance.
- Third-quarter tracking: MGM room rates down ~6% and Caesars down ~17% overall; weekends and weekdays both weaker with varying magnitudes.
- August showed uneven performance: MGM down 4% overall, Caesars down 27%, with most weakness on weekends for Caesars and stronger weekday comps for MGM.
- September trends remained lower: MGM down ~12% and Caesars down ~11%; weekends and weekdays both softer in many weeks.
- October remains soft (MGM down ~14%, Caesars down ~11%), but November first-read: MGM down ~1% while Caesars is up ~4%.
- Jonas warns data is limited for October/November and trends could change; there may be third-quarter estimate risks, but any fourth-quarter improvement could help stock performance.
- Operators are broadly optimistic about Q4 and 2026 thanks to a stronger events and convention calendar.
Why should I read this?
Quick and useful if you follow Vegas, gaming stocks or hospitality — this story tells you where bookings and room rates actually sit right now, what a big event can do for a weekend, and why November might finally start to look better. In short: fast facts that save you a deeper dig.
Source
Article Date: 2025-09-16T01:08:55+00:00