Tanker Market Fragmented With Performance Varying

Summary

The tanker market is fragmented: different vessel classes are showing distinct earnings and activity patterns driven by shifting trade flows and an uneasy oil-demand outlook. Shipbroker Xclusiv highlights contrasting narratives from the IEA, which has trimmed demand growth forecasts for 2025–26, and OPEC, which expects stronger demand and points to tight OECD stocks. Brent oil has swung between the low $60s and above $80/bbl amid geopolitical risks and inventory moves.

China sits at the centre of uncertainty — crude imports hit a 22-month high in June but eased in July, with independent refiners constrained and state-owned refiners holding substantial commercial stocks. India is redirecting flows following US tariffs, boosting imports from Brazil; that diversion supports longer-haul tonne-mile demand and benefits VLCC employment despite higher shipping costs.

These fundamentals have translated into divergent earnings: Aframax and Suezmax rates plunged in July then rebounded strongly into August, VLCCs firmed on longer-haul demand and stockpiling talk, while MR product tankers saw uneven performance with the Pacific lagging the Atlantic.

Key Points

IEA lowered demand growth for 2025–26; OPEC projects a stronger 2026 outlook, creating mixed market signals.
China’s import behaviour is volatile — June strength, July slowdown — complicating near-term demand forecasts.
India’s shift towards Brazilian crude (up 75% y/y H1 2025) raises tonne-mile demand and supports VLCCs despite longer voyages and higher freight costs.
Aframax and Suezmax rates fell in July then surged in August as regional disruptions and pipeline diversions altered liftings.
VLCC earnings improved on longer-haul flows and SPR talk; MRs remain patchy due to reliance on shorter-haul product trades.
Regional distortions (inventory levels, quotas, sanctions, tariffs) are the main driver of segment divergence rather than a single global trend.

Context and relevance

For shipowners, charterers and traders, the article explains why vessel-type selection and routing matter more than usual: geopolitical tensions, inventory strategies and policy moves (tariffs, quotas, SPR buying) are reshaping who’s lifting what and from where. That in turn alters demand for tonne-miles, favouring long-haul VLCCs in some trades while boosting shorter-haul segments intermittently. This is highly relevant for commercial planning, fleet deployment and freight-rate risk management.

Author style

Punchy: the piece cuts straight to how competing macro narratives and shifting flows are fragmenting tanker performance — a must-see snapshot if you move tankers or hedge freight exposure.

Why should I read this?

Because it sums up, in plain terms, why some tankers are suddenly making money while others aren’t. We’ve read the broker notes and pulled out the bits that affect routing, cargo sourcing and who wins on freight — so you don’t have to sift through market chatter. If you care about where demand is actually happening (and which ships will benefit), this saves you time.