Netherlands faces €200m gambling tax black hole as rate rise backfires
Summary
New figures show the Dutch government’s staggered gambling tax rise — introduced in January — has produced an unexpected shortfall of more than €200m. Licensed operators’ gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell around 25% in H1 2025 versus the same period in 2024, leaving Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) tax receipts at roughly 83% of last year’s level despite the hike to 34.2% of GGR. The tax is set to rise further to 37.8% from 1 January 2026.
Industry groups point to a combination of recent protection measures (bans on untargeted advertising and sponsorship, deposit limits of €700/month and €300/month for 18–25s) and higher taxation as drivers pushing players — especially higher-value ones — to unlicensed operators. KSA data show channelisation fell from an estimated 58% to 50% in H2 2024, and trade bodies warn the increase risks operators exiting the market and driving play to the black market.
Source
Key Points
- • KSA tax revenue for H1 2025 is about 83% of the same period in 2024 despite the tax rise to 34.2%.
- • Licensed GGR reportedly fell 25% in H1 2025 versus H1 2024 (VNLOK data).
- • The Ministry of Finance had forecast an extra €200m annually between 2025–2028; that target now looks unlikely to be met.
- • New restrictions (advertising and sponsorship bans, deposit limits) and higher taxes have reduced channelisation from ~58% to ~50%, with higher-value players moving to unlicensed sites.
- • Industry bodies and Atlas Research warned the hike could force operators to exit and push players to the black market — counter to both budget and policy aims.
Why should I read this?
Short version: the government hiked the tax to raise cash — but the market shrank instead. If you care about gambling regulation, market dynamics or policy missteps, this is a tidy, real-world example of how well-intentioned measures can backfire and erode both revenue and regulation goals.
Author style
Punchy: this is important. The revenue shortfall undermines fiscal promises and the very responsible-gambling objectives the measures aimed to advance. Read the detail if you need to understand where regulation, taxation and market behaviour collide.
Context and Relevance
This development matters to operators, regulators, investors and policymakers across Europe. It highlights tensions between stricter consumer protections and market channelisation, and feeds into broader debates about tax policy, compliance costs and the growth of the black market in regulated jurisdictions.